Dispa-SET 2.0: unit commitment and power dispatch model

Most analyses of the future European energy system conclude that in order to achieve energy and climate change policy goals it will be necessary to ramp up the use of renewable energy sources. The stochastic nature of those energies, together with other sources of short- and long-term uncertainty, already have significant impacts in current energy systems operation and planning, and it is expected that future energy systems will be forced to become increasingly flexible in order to cope with these challenges. Therefore, policy makers need to consider issues such as the effects of intermittent energy sources on the reliability and adequacy of the energy system, the impacts of rules governing the curtailment or storage of energy, or how much backup dispatchable capacity may be required to guarantee that energy demand is safely met. Many of these questions are typically addressed by detailed models of the electric power sector with a high level of technological and temporal resolution. This report describes one of such models developed by the JRC's Institute for Energy and Transport: Dispa-SET 2.0, a unit commitment and dispatch model of the European power system aimed at representing with a high level of detail the short-term operation of large-scale power systems. The new model is an updated version of Dispa-SET 1.0, in use at the JRC since 2009.JRC.F.6-Energy Technology Policy Outloo

Integrated modelling of future EU power and heat systems: The Dispa-SET v2.2 open-source model

This report describes the implementation of the Dispa-SET model version 2.2. It extensively describes the model equations, the model inputs, and the resolution process. This version of Dispa-SET focuses more specifically on the inclusion of the heating sector, with a new dedicated module. It allows simulating the potential interactions between heat and power and the exploitation of thermal storage as a flexible resource. The model is an open-source tool and comes with an open dataset for testing purposes. It can therefore be freely re-used or modified to fit the needs of a particular case study.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Water-related modelling in electric power systems: WATERFLEX Exploratory Research Project: version 1

Water is needed for energy. For instance, hydropower is the technology that generates more electricity worldwide after the fossil-fuelled power plants and its production depends on water availability and variability. Additionally, thermal power plants need water for cooling and thus generate electricity. On the other hand, energy is also needed for water. Given the increase of additional hydropower potential worldwide in the coming years, the high dependence of electricity generation with fossil-fuelled power plants, and the implications of the climate change, relevant international organisations have paid attention to the water-energy nexus (or more explicitly within a power system context, the water-power nexus). The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, the United States Department of Energy, the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, the Midwest Energy Research Consortium and the Water Council, or the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, among others, have raised awareness about this nexus and its analysis as an integrated system. In order to properly analyse such linkages between the power and water sectors, there is a need for appropriate modelling frameworks and mathematical approaches. This report comprises the water-constrained models in electric power systems developed within the WATERFLEX Exploratory Research Project of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in order to analyse the water-power interactions. All these models are deemed modules of the Dispa-SET modelling tool. The version 1 of the medium-term hydrothermal coordination module is presented with some modelling extensions, namely the incorporation of transmission network constraints, water demands, and ecological flows. Another salient feature of this version of Dispa-SET is the modelling of the stochastic medium-term hydrothermal coordination problem. The stochastic problem is solved by using an efficient scenario-based decomposition technique, the so-called Progressive Hedging algorithm. This technique is an Augmented-Lagrangian-based decomposition method that decomposes the original problem into smaller subproblems per scenario. The Progressive Hedging algorithm has multiple advantages: — It is easy parallelizable due to its inherent structure. — It provides solution stability and better computational performance compared to Benders-like decomposition techniques (node-based decomposition). — It scales better for large-scale stochastic programming problems. — It has been widely used in the technical literature, thus demonstrating its efficiency. Its implementation has been carried out through the PySP software package which is part of the Coopr open-source Python repository for optimisation. This report also describes the cooling-related constraints included in the unit commitment and dispatch module of Dispa-SET. The cooling-related constraints encompass limitations on allowable maximum water withdrawals of thermal power plants and modelling of the power produced in terms of the river water temperature of the power plant inlet. Limitations on thermal releases or water withdrawals could be imposed due to physical or policy reasons. Finally, an offline and decoupled modelling framework is presented to link such modules with the rainfall-runoff hydrological LISFLOOD model. This modelling framework is able to accurately capture the water-power interactions. Some challenges and barriers to properly address the water-power nexus are also highlighted in the report.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Power system flexibility in a variable climate

Our report “Power system flexibility in a variable climate” assesses the impact of the annual variation of meteorological factors – the climate variability – on the operations of the power systems in 34 European countries that jointly constitute the interconnected European electricity systems. It covers important aspects such as CO2 emissions and use of freshwater for cooling of power plants, and estimates their sensitivity to the changing climatic conditions. Changing weather conditions affect the operation of the European power systems. The output of renewable energy sources fluctuates depending on the availability of wind, cloud cover, or water levels in reservoirs, while the output of dispatchable generators, such as gas turbines, must be adapted accordingly to ensure that supply and demand are balanced at all times. The link between meteorology and power systems also manifests itself through other aspects such as the demand for electricity, affecting the operation of power markets, and thus power prices, emissions, and use of resources (fuels, fresh water etc). Today more than 40% of the European electricity generation capacity is heavily dependent on climatic factors. This dependence is expected to increase in the future as Europe is transitioning to a carbon-neutral economy by mid-century.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Projected freshwater needs of the energy sector in the European Union and the UK

This study estimates plausible projections of the long-term freshwater needs of the energy industries (that is, primary energy production and energy transformation in refineries and power plants) in all the EU Member States and the UK until 2050, according to the six energy scenarios publicly available. The projections are disaggregated at NUTS2 level for further analysis within the WEFE project. They are intended to be used in combination with other estimations of the freshwater requirements of other sectors (e.g. agriculture, public water supply) to assess the overall stress of water resources, and also in energy modelling analyses supporting the design of energy and environmental policies.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

SETIS Magazine: The relevance of the water-energy nexus for EU policies

The SETIS magazine aims at delivering timely information and analysis on the state of play of energy technologies, related research and innovation efforts in support of the implementation of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan). The current issue is dedicated to The relevance of the water-energy nexus for EU policies. The foreword is provided by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) on The relevance of the water-energy nexus for the EU policies. This issue also hosts interviews with: •Beata Slominska and Carmen Marques Ruiz, working at the European External Action Service ‑ (EEAS). •Pedro Linares and Zarrar Khan, working at the ICAI School of Engineering and the Joint Global Change Research Institute respectively. •Martina Florke and Zita Sebesvari, working at the University of Kassel and at the United Nations University respectively. In this issue, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) contributes with an article on the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus project.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

The water-energy nexus and the implications for the flexibility of the Greek power system

The operation of the power systems is constrained by the availability of water resources, which are necessary for cooling thermal power plants and determine the generation of hydro reservoirs and run-of-river power plants. The interactions between the water and power systems have impacts on the quantity and quality of the water resources, thus affecting human uses and the environment. The European power system has witnessed in the past several examples of the consequences of reduced availability of water, which range from monetary losses, to demand restrictions, or increased wear and tear of the power plants. The importance of these impacts, and the expectation that climate change will produce similar episodes in the future more often, raises several research questions relevant for policy making. Some of these questions may be addressed by WATERFLEX, an exploratory research project carried out by units C7 (Knowledge for the Energy Union) and D2 (Water and Marine Resources) of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC). The main goal of WATERFLEX is to assess the potential of hydropower as a source of flexibility to the European power system, as well as analysing the Water-Energy nexus against the background of the EU initiatives towards a low-carbon energy system. The method proposed in the WATERFLEX project for better representing and analysing the complex interdependencies between the power and water sectors consists of combining two of the modelling tools available at the JRC, the LISFLOOD hydrological model [1] and the Dispa-SET unit commitment and dispatch model [2], with a medium-term hydrothermal coordination model. In order to test and validate the proposed approach described above, this document describes a case study carried out to analyse the implications of different hydrologic scenarios for the flexibility of the Greek power system.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Systematic mapping of power system models: Expert survey

The power system is one of the main subsystems of larger energy systems. It is a complex system in itself, consisting of an ever-changing infrastructure used by a large number of actors of very different sizes. The boundaries of the power system are characterised by ever-evolving interfaces with equally complex subsystems such as gas transport and distribution, heating and cooling, and, increasingly, transport. The situation is further complicated by the fact that electricity is only a carrier, able to fulfil demand for such things as lighting, heat or mobility. One specific and fundamental feature of the electricity system is that demand and generation must match at any time, while satisfying technical and economic constraints. In most of the world’s power systems, only relatively small quantities of electricity can be stored, and only for limited periods of time. A detailed analysis of supply and demand is thus needed for short time intervals. Mathematical models facilitate power system planning, operation, transmission and distribution, demonstrating problems that need to be solved over different timescales and horizons. The use of modelling to understand these processes is not only vital for the system’s direct actors, i.e. the companies involved in the generation, trade, transmission, distribution and use of electricity, but also for policy-makers and regulators. Power system models can provide evidence to support policy-making at European Union, Member State and Regional level. As a consequence of the growth in computing power, mathematical models for power systems have become more accessible. The number of models available worldwide, and the degree of detail they provide, is growing fast. A proper mapping of power system models is therefore essential in order to: - provide an overview of power system models and their applications available in, or used by, European organisations; - analyse their modelling features; - identify modelling gaps. Few reviews have been conducted to date of the power system modelling landscape. The mission of the Knowledge for the Energy Union Unit of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is to support policies related to the Energy Union by anticipating, mapping, collating, analysing, quality checking and communicating all relevant data/knowledge, including knowledge gaps, in a systematic and digestible way. This report therefore constitutes: - From the energy modelling perspective, a useful mapping exercise that could help promote knowledge-sharing and thus increase efficiency and transparency in the modelling community. It could trigger new, unexplored avenues of research. It also represents an ideal starting point for systematic review activities in the context of the power system. - From the knowledge management perspective, a useful blueprint to be adopted for similar mapping exercises in other thematic areas. Finally, this report is aligned with the objectives of the European Commission's Competence Centre on Modelling, (1) launched on 26 October 2017 and hosted by the JRC, which aims to promote a responsible, coherent and transparent use of modelling to support the evidence base for European Union policies. In order to meet the objectives of this report, an online survey was used to collect detailed and relevant information about power system models. The participants’ answers were processed to categorise and describe the modelling tools identified. The survey, conducted by the Knowledge for the Energy Union Unit of the JRC, comprised a set of questions for each model to ascertain its basic information, its users, software characteristics, modelling properties, mathematical description, policy-making applications, selected references, and more. The survey campaign was organised in two rounds between April and July 2017. 228 surveys were sent to power system experts and organisations, and 82 questionnaires were completed. The answers were processed to map the knowledge objectively. (2) The main results of the survey can be summarised as follows: - Software-related features: about two thirds of the models require third-party software such as commercial optimisation solvers or off-the-shelf software. Only 14% of the models are open source, while 11% are free to download. - Modelling-related features: models are mostly defined as optimisation problems (78%) rather than simulation (33%) or equilibrium problems (13%). 71% of the models solve a deterministic problem while 41% solve probabilistic or stochastic problems. - Modelled power system problems: the economic dispatch problem is the most commonly modelled problem with a share of approximately 70%, followed by generation expansion planning, unit commitment, and transmission expansion planning, with around 40‒43% each. Most of the models (57%) have non-public input data while 31% of models use open input data. - Modelled technologies: hydro, wind, thermal, storage and nuclear technologies are widely taken into account, featuring in around 83‒94% of models. However, HVDC, wave tidal, PSTs, and FACTS (3) are not often found unless the analysis is specifically performed for those technologies. - Applicability in the context of European energy policy: more than half of the mapped models (56%) were used to answer a specific policy question. Of the five Energy Union strategic dimensions, integration of the European Union internal energy market was addressed the most often (27%), followed by climate action (23%), research, innovation and competitiveness (21%), and energy efficiency (15%). This report includes JRC recommendations based on the results of the survey, on future research avenues for power system modelling and its applicability within the Energy Union strategic dimensions. More attention should be paid, for example, to model uncertainty features, and collaboration among researchers and practitioners should be promoted to intensify research into specific power system problems such as AC (4) optimal power flow. The report includes factsheets for each model analysed, summarising relevant characteristics based on the participants’ answers. While this report represents a scientific result per se, one of the expected (and welcomed) outcomes of this mapping exercise is to raise awareness of power system modelling activities among European policy makers.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Current and projected freshwater needs of the African energy system

Africa’s expected rapid economic development and population growth will increase in all likelihood the stress on water and energy resources in the coming decades. A number of studies have addressed the water needs of the energy sector, both at global scale or for certain developed countries. However, very few of them have focused on Africa, often overshadowed by other industrialised regions with a much higher water use for energy. Contrary to other studies, this report also addresses hydropower and fuelwood, not only due to the important role they play in many African countries but also because they consume large amounts of water and are therefore extremely vulnerable to water scarcity. The methodology used to assess hydropower in this study differs from other analyses, which would normally obtain the reservoirs' areas needed to estimate the evaporation losses from global databases. In this report, the assessment of hydropower relies on the more accurate information provided by the Global Surface Water Dataset (Pekel et al., 2016), a JRC product based on satellite data, which provides monthly water surfaces at 30 m spatial resolution. In this study, the current and future water needs (consumption and withdrawals) of the African energy sector have been estimated on a country-by-country basis. Primary energy production (fuel extraction), energy transformation (oil refining and electricity generation) and power plant construction have been evaluated. The results of this analysis reveal that in the year 2016, 42 bcm[1] of water were lost through evaporation in hydropower reservoirs, 4.5 bcm were used for fuelwood production and 1.2 bcm were consumed by the rest of the energy types combined. Non-hydro renewable energies such as wind and solar have a negligible effect on water use, making them an interesting alternative to conventional energy sources for the sustainable development in Africa, especially given their large untapped potential in the continent. Future projections of freshwater use at country level are also analysed, based on three energy scenarios for Africa, aligned with the JRC’s Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) 2018 (Keramidas et al., 2020; Pappis et al., 2019): i) a reference scenario (hereafter denoted R) that extrapolates the current situation into the future, ii) a 2.0 °C scenario in which new policies and emission targets are implemented to keep global mean temperature increase to 2.0 °C over pre-industrial levels with a 67% probability, and iii) a 1.5 °C scenario that assumes a stronger climate objective pursuing a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions to levels lower than in the reference and the 2.0 °C scenarios with a 50% probability of reaching 1.5 °C warming by 2100. These projections indicate that by 2030, depending on the scenario, the water loss allocated to hydropower due to evaporative losses will be 93.8 bcm (R), 94.8 bcm (2.0 °C) and 93.1 bcm (1.5 °C ); the water consumption for fuelwood production: 7.6 bcm (R), 7.7 bcm (2.0 °C) and 7.8 bcm (1.5 °C); and the water consumption for the other energy types: 1 bcm (R) and 0.8 bcm (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). By 2050, hydropower water losses will rise up to: 139 bcm (R), 155 bcm (2.0 °C) and 160.7 bcm (1.5 °C ); water consumption for fuelwood production: 7.2 bcm (R), 7.4 bcm (2.0 °C) and 7.9 bcm (1.5 °C) bcm; and water consumption for the other energy types: 1.3 bcm (R), 0.7 bcm (2.0 °C) and 0.5 bcm (1.5 °C). The low carbon policies will not only have a positive effect on emissions but also on the water consumption in some energy sub-sectors, reducing the use of water for primary energy production and transformation, and increasing the penetration of some renewable energies such as solar, wind and geothermal. However, other more water-intensive renewables (e.g.: hydropower and biomass) are also expected to increase their share in the future energy mix, causing significant impacts on water use. The penetration of oil and gas to substitute fuelwood use in households will reduce the water use in the continent. At the same time, despite the large untapped potential of hydropower in Africa, the water impacts of new hydropower developments need to be effectively considered, especially in regions characterised by severe water scarcity. New ways to limit evaporation from hydropower reservoirs need to be deployed in order to mitigate their impact on water stress.JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewable

The water-power nexus of the Iberian Peninsula power system: WATERFLEX project

Water availability influences power generation and its costs. Policies aimed at keeping the water stress index of thermal power plants within acceptable limits are needed. This report provides a model-based analysis of the water-power nexus in the Iberian Peninsula.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio